India’s Future Crude Oil Requirements: Demand Projections for 2017 and 2022


With rapid economic growth, energy demand in India has been rising rapidly, and India has secured the fourth position in consumption of crude oil in the world. But, major part of the demand is met through imports which make our country vulnerable towards any sudden increase in the global oil prices. In this paper, we have projected the crude oil demand for the end years of Twelfth and Thirteenth five year plan i.e., 2017 and 2022, under three different scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Our projections show that over 2017–2022; demand for crude oil is likely to increase by about 47.3, 54.2 and 64.4 percent in different scenarios. Therefore, it is very important for the country to take various measures for improving efficiency in the use of petroleum products and at the same time, developing non-conventional sources as Western European countries have been doing. The Integrated Energy Policy of India has noted that lowering the energy intensity of GDP growth through higher energy efficiency is critical for India to meet energy challenge and ensure energy security.

Key words: Demand projections, India, crude oil

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Categories: February 2016